Why in news
The UK Met Office confirmed forecasts this week of an unprecedented El Niño signal, with sea surface temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above baseline, while the UN's Copernicus Climate Change Service separately projects 2026 as a likely record-breaking year with below-normal rainfall already noted over India.
Why for UPSC
UPSC frequently tests whether aspirants understand El Niño as a mechanism (weakened Walker Circulation disrupting monsoon winds) rather than just a headline term - this question probes that causal chain plus the classification threshold and irregular periodicity, both classic distractor traps.
Prelims summary
El Niño is declared at ≥0.5°C eastern Pacific SST anomaly; it weakens the Walker Circulation and thereby weakens India's southwest monsoon; the ENSO cycle recurs irregularly every 2-7 years, with no fixed periodicity.