Geography · 25 Sep 2026

El Niño Southern Oscillation

Consider the following events:

  1. Issue of India's first regular monsoon forecast by the colonial meteorological service
  2. Gilbert Walker's formal description of the Southern Oscillation
  3. Adoption of South Asia's first city-level Heat Action Plan in Ahmedabad
  4. The great drought and famine that prompted the government to seek advance warning of monsoon failure
A1 - 4 - 2 - 3
B4 - 1 - 2 - 3
C4 - 2 - 1 - 3
D1 - 2 - 4 - 3
This question is based on: Super El Niño and 15,800 Deaths: India Began Forecasting ENSO Because of Famine. Now It Must Forecast Heat
Take this in full test mode → Instructions for 25 Sep 2026
About this question

Why in news

The Climate Impact Lab projects about 15,800 extra heat deaths in India from the 2026 Super El Niño between September 2026 and February 2027. This comes alongside a monsoon deficit of about 15% and low coal stocks at thermal plants.

Why for UPSC

UPSC often links a current climate event to its scientific and institutional history, such as ENSO, Walker circulation and IMD forecasting. Chronology questions test whether an aspirant understands cause and sequence, not just isolated dates.

Prelims summary

El Niño is the unusual warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It weakens the Indian monsoon through the Walker circulation.
India's forecasting grew out of the 1877 famine. The first regular forecast came in 1886 and Gilbert Walker's work on the Southern Oscillation followed.
Today the risk from El Niño also includes public health, through out-of-season heat.

On web, answers are shown once after a test — no save or reattempt. For unlimited reattempts, Hindi medium, and Mentor Observations, use the TAN App.