Topic 11 of 20
GS Paper 3 Energy Security Ship-to-Ship Transfers, West Asian Crude and India's Shrinking Russian Share

Who Carries the Risk at Hormuz? How Ship-to-Ship Transfers Turned India's Oil Diversification Into a Risk-Allocation Strategy

Source Indian Express, The Guardian, Economic Times

When a tanker full of crude crosses a strait in the middle of a war, who is actually carrying the risk: the country selling the oil or the country buying it? For much of this year, that risk sat with buyers like India. In September, Gulf suppliers began quietly taking it back.

Summary

India's crude imports from West Asia rose sharply in September, according to provisional Kpler tanker-tracking data, as Gulf suppliers used ship-to-ship transfers to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Under this method, the supplier sends its own shuttle tanker through the strait and hands the cargo to a buyer's vessel waiting in safer waters, so the seller now carries most of the transit risk.

Imports from Iraq rose 238.2 percent month-on-month, Kuwait 104.4 percent and Saudi Arabia 56.2 percent, while Qatar resumed supplies from zero. At the same time, imports from Russia fell for a second month to 1.9 million barrels per day, a five-month low, amid tighter Russian supply and stronger Chinese competition.

The shift also comes as a new US law threatens tariffs of up to 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian oil, a list led by China and India.

WHY IN NEWS FOR UPSC & STATE PCS

Kpler vessel-tracking data for September 2026 shows India's crude imports from five West Asian suppliers rising to a combined 2 million barrels per day, with their share of India's imports jumping from 26 percent in August to 36.7 percent.

Russian imports fell for the second straight month, to 1.9 million barrels per day. The data comes as India continues talks with Washington on the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.

Standard News

The Real Change at Hormuz Is Not Who Sells India Oil. It Is Who Carries the Risk.

The headline number: In September, five West Asian suppliers sent India 2 million barrels of crude a day and their share of India's imports jumped from 26 percent to 36.7 percent in a single month. Russia slipped to 1.9 million barrels a day, its lowest in five months.

That reads like a simple story of India switching suppliers. It is more interesting than that. What actually changed is who carries the danger of moving oil through a war zone.

How the

mechanism works In a normal trade, a buyer's tanker loads crude at a Gulf port and sails straight to India. If that tanker has to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a conflict, the buyer pays for it in three ways: higher war-risk insurance, costlier freight and the chance of losing the cargo altogether.

A ship-to-ship transfer changes this. The supplier loads the crude onto its own shuttle tanker, takes it through the strait and hands it over to the buyer's vessel waiting in safer waters outside. The dangerous part of the voyage now belongs to the seller.

For an Indian refiner, this means the risk premium that would have landed on its own freight and insurance bill now sits with the supplier instead. The risk has not disappeared. It has been moved to the party that wants the sale most.

Why the

sellers agreed to carry it Look at who grew fastest. Iraq rose 238.2 percent, Kuwait 104.4 percent and Qatar went from zero to about 110,000 barrels a day. These three depend most on Hormuz, with no major pipeline route around it.

If they want to keep their buyers, they have to make the strait someone else's problem. Taking the risk themselves is how they do it. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass the strait. The UAE was the only West Asian supplier whose volumes to India actually fell, by 15.8 percent.

Why

Russia slipped at the same time Russia's fall from a July record of 2.8 million barrels a day to 1.9 million is a drop of nearly a third. Reports attribute it to tighter Russian supply as Ukraine strikes its energy infrastructure and to tougher competition from Chinese refiners.

Over all of this hangs the Graham Act, which allows US tariffs of up to 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian oil. Kpler's analysts expect Indian refiners to lean towards more available Middle Eastern barrels while that uncertainty lasts.

What has not changed The rebound is real, but partial.

West Asian supply is still 33 percent below February's roughly 3 million barrels a day. Russia still provides more than a third of India's crude. India has not swapped one dependence for another; it has spread its exposure more evenly.

Diversification used to mean asking "who can sell us oil?" Now it also means asking "who will carry the risk of getting it here?"

The insight for the exam Most answers will describe September's data as India "shifting from Russian to Gulf oil".

The sharper reading is that energy security now depends on how risk is divided in each contract, not just on how many countries supply the oil. Discounted Russian crude priced in one kind of risk: sanctions. Ship-to-ship Gulf crude prices in another: war. A resilient import basket holds both, so that no single shock can stop the flow.

Quick Facts

Key numbers & takeaways — revise these first

  • India's imports from Russia fell to 1.9 million barrels per day in September, down almost 9 percent from 2.1 million in August.

  • Russian imports had hit a record 2.8 million barrels per day in July.

  • Russia remains India's largest supplier, at over 35 percent of total crude imports in September.

  • Iraq supplied over 551,000 barrels per day in September, up 238.2 percent from August.

  • Saudi Arabia supplied almost 543,000 barrels per day, up 56.2 percent.

  • Kuwait supplied about 317,000 barrels per day, up 104.4 percent.

  • Qatar supplied nearly 110,000 barrels per day, up from nil in August.

  • The UAE supplied around 460,000 barrels per day, down 15.8 percent, the only West Asian supplier to decline.

  • The five West Asian suppliers together sent 2 million barrels per day, still 33 percent below their roughly 3 million in February, before the West Asia war began.

  • Their combined share of India's imports was 36.7 percent in September, against 26 percent in August and 56.3 percent in February.

  • The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

  • Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass Hormuz; Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar depend on it most.

  • The Graham Act of 2026 allows the US President to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on the biggest buyers of Russian oil.

  • The Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell under the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas publishes India's official oil import data.

Beyond The Headlines
GS Paper 3 Ship-to-Ship Transfers, West Asian Crude and India's Shrinking Russian Share

Connect the dots for your UPSC preparation.

Standard news covers the event. Log in to read our comprehensive analysis and uncover the hidden constitutional, structural, and ethical dimensions of this topic:

1

The four structural forces behind September's shift, from the war at Hormuz to the Graham Act and why each pulls India's basket in a different direction.

2

A clear breakdown of who absorbs the cost of ship-to-ship transfers: the seller's shuttle fleet, the insurers and whether any of it returns to Indian refiners through price.

3

Why Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have far more at stake than Saudi Arabia and the UAE and what that means for India's bargaining power.

4

A short-term and long-term plan for turning risk-sharing into a deliberate import policy, including strategic reserves and contract design.

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