Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens as US-Iran Strikes Resume, Islamabad MoU Collapses

THE CEASEFIRE'S COLLAPSE IS THE STORY, NOT THE STRIKES THEMSELVES

Strip away the daily strike reports and one fact does the real explanatory work here: the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, signed barely a month ago, papered over the actual dispute instead of resolving it. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said the renewed US blockade "has, in a way, dismantled" the MoU - but the more accurate read is that the MoU was never strong enough to survive contact with the underlying disagreement it was supposed to settle: who controls transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

WHAT EACH SIDE WAS ACTUALLY BUYING WITH THAT CEASEFIRE

Washington needed the MoU to stop the bleeding on oil prices and get shipping moving again without conceding anything on its right to patrol the Strait - hence the elaborate US-guided transit scheme launched quietly in June, moving tens of millions of barrels through supposedly safe lanes.

Iran needed the MoU to buy time to rebuild capacity while keeping its core claim intact: that it, not Washington, controls access to Hormuz. Neither side actually gave up its underlying position; they simply agreed not to act on it for a few weeks.

That is why the ceasefire was always more fragile than its "interim deal" framing suggested - it was a pause on enforcement, not a resolution of the claim itself.

WHY THE OMANI ROUTE FAILING IS THE REAL SIGNAL

The detail that matters more than the strikes is quieter: shipping companies are now avoiding even the US-military-guided route on the Omani side of the Strait, after five ships were attacked there since July 7. That data point tells you Washington's actual leverage - its ability to guarantee safe passage through an alternative lane - has failed, not just that fighting resumed.

If the "safe" route is no longer safe, the US has lost the one card that let it claim de facto control of the chokepoint without a full naval confrontation. For India, this isn't background noise. The IMF's own economists note that spare oil capacity and inventories, which cushioned prices during the February war, have already been drawn down - "the world will start from a weaker position when the next shock comes." That leaves India's energy security architecture, increasingly built around discounted Russian crude as a hedge against Gulf volatility, facing its most direct stress test yet: not a hypothetical Hormuz closure, but a live one, at the exact moment global buffers are thinnest.