Summary
Fertiliser Association of India data show that sales of every major fertiliser fell in April-September 2026 compared with the same period last year. The southwest monsoon ended 12.6% below the long-period average under a strong El Niño.
Complex (NPKS) fertilisers fell the most, by 22.2%, while urea dipped 4.1% and DAP only 0.6%. On the supply side, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf facilities hit LNG and sulphur. India pushed urea imports up 40.5% even as sales fell, while production of complex fertilisers collapsed.
The result exposes how fixed urea and DAP prices shield those two products and squeeze balanced nutrition, making India's soil health and fiscal position hostage to West Asian supply chains.
WHY IT MATTERS FOR UPSC & STATE PCS
FAI data for April-September 2026, analysed by the Indian Express, show the first dip in urea sales since 2021-22 and a 22.2% fall in complex-fertiliser sales. The drop is driven by a 12.6% monsoon deficit and a West Asian conflict that disrupted LNG and sulphur supplies.
Standard News
Price Control Decides What a Drought Takes Away
The headline is a dip: fertiliser sales across the board fell in April-September 2026 as the monsoon ended 12.6% short. But the drought did not cut all nutrients equally. It cut the ones the pricing system leaves exposed.
Who bought what and why Sales in lakh tonnes tell the story:
| Product | Change | Apr-Sep 2026 | |---|---|---| | Complex (NPKS) fertilisers | down 22.2% | 60.08 | | MOP | down 11.7% | 9.66 | | Urea | down 4.1% | 185.22 | | SSP | down 1.4% | 28.29 | | DAP | down 0.6% | 43.64 | Now zoom in on a dryland farmer in Marathwada, Vidarbha or Saurashtra, where rains failed.
Nitrogen is the nutrient whose absence shows quickly in the crop, so it is the last to be dropped. It is also the cheapest, because urea's MRP is fixed at ₹266.50 for a 45-kg bag. DAP, carrying 46% phosphorus and 18% nitrogen, is held at ₹1,350 for 50 kg, so it too stays relatively affordable.
Complex fertilisers sit under the Nutrient Based Subsidy, where prices float closer to input costs. When money is tight, they are the bag the farmer skips. That is the transmission mechanism. A fixed price on two products turns a drought into a nutrient-balance shock, not just a volume shock.
The supply side made it worse The squeeze did not come from demand alone.
Complex fertilisers and SSP need sulphur, a by-product of oil refining and gas processing. India sourced it mainly from Saudi Aramco, QatarEnergy and ADNOC, whose facilities were hit in the Iran conflict. Complex-fertiliser production fell from 59.29 to 38.22 lakh tonnes and imports fell from 20.19 to 13.86.
Urea faced a different shock. Its plants run on imported LNG and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut supplies from Qatar and the UAE. State firms were pushed to source gas from the US, Nigeria, Oman, Angola, Cameroon, Australia and Norway.
Here is the paradox: urea imports rose 40.5% even as urea sales fell. According to an industry source, the government's priority is to avoid any shortage of the two most politically sensitive fertilisers, urea and DAP, ahead of the February-March 2027 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
Who loses - The soil. Every season of nitrogen-heavy use widens the gap with phosphorus, potassium and sulphur.
- The exchequer. Expensive emergency imports of a product with falling demand add pressure to a ₹1.71 lakh crore subsidy budget.
- Complex-fertiliser makers. They are squeezed by weak demand on one side and a sulphur shortage on the other. There is a small mercy. Black-market urea prices have reportedly stayed within ₹300 a bag, compared with ₹350-450 last year, because there is no shortage or panic buying.
Quick Facts
Key numbers & takeaways — revise these first
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Southwest monsoon rainfall (June-September 2026) was 12.6% below the long-period average.
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October 2026 rainfall so far is 51.8% deficient.
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April-September 2026 sales, in lakh tonnes: complex fertilisers 60.08 (down 22.2%), urea 185.22 (down 4.1%), DAP 43.64 (down 0.6%), SSP 28.29 (down 1.4%), MOP 9.66 (down 11.7%).
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Urea imports rose 40.5%, from 39.79 to 55.89 lakh tonnes, while urea production rose 4.3%, to 150.64 lakh tonnes.
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Production of complex fertilisers fell from 59.29 to 38.22 lakh tonnes.
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The MRP of a 45-kg urea bag is ₹266.50; the MRP of a 50-kg DAP bag is ₹1,350.
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DAP contains 46% phosphorus and 18% nitrogen.
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India has no domestic MOP production.
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The fertiliser subsidy allocation for 2026-27 is ₹1.71 lakh crore.
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Phosphatic and potassic fertilisers are covered by the Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme; urea remains under statutory price control.
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Domestic tractor despatches fell 18.1% in September 2026, to 1,19,667 units.
Connect the dots for your UPSC preparation.
Standard news covers the event. Log in to read our comprehensive analysis and uncover the hidden constitutional, structural, and ethical dimensions of this topic:
The import paradox explained: why urea imports rose 40.5% in a season when urea sales fell.
How sulphur from damaged Gulf refineries became the hidden bottleneck for complex fertilisers and SSP.
The tractor-sales signal: separating the drought effect from the festival calendar and the GST base effect.
A reform path covering nutrient-neutral pricing, diversified LNG and sulphur sourcing and a fiscal plan for the rabi season under a persisting El Niño.
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