The Storm Before the Repairs: Why Murasu's Category Understates the Risk Arnab Left Behind

A Forecast That Reads the Wind, Not the Damage The

IMD chief expected Murasu to cross the south Andhra coast as a severe storm, with sustained winds of 100 to 110 km per hour. Arnab, which landed on 28 October, had sustained winds of 125 to 135 km per hour and gusts of up to 150.

On the wind scale, Murasu is the smaller threat. That comparison is correct and it is also incomplete. IMD's classification measures a storm's wind. Risk depends on what that storm meets. As of the 1 November bulletins, Murasu was heading into a system that had not finished recovering from the previous blow.

Landfall has not happened yet, so this is a reading of risk rather than a record of damage.

Early Warning Has Done Its Job

Credit comes first, because this link has clearly improved. Authorities had a crossing window and location days in advance: between Nellore and Narsapur, around midnight and the early hours of 3 November. Five districts went on red alert.

Andhra Pradesh prepared 1,688 medical teams and 116 relief camps and shifted nearly 500 pregnant women due to deliver to health centres. Odisha ordered evacuations from low-lying and hilly areas. The commitment since the Disaster Management Act, 2005 has been to move from relief to preparedness.

On warning and evacuation, that commitment shows.

Where the Chain Breaks: The Days Between

The weak link is the gap between two events. On 30 October, two days after Arnab, recovery figures looked like this:

• Power: 87 of 316 villages restored in Konaseema and 154 of 318 in West Godavari.
• Telecom: 384 of 1,045 damaged mobile towers still pending.
• Crops: about 3.52 lakh hectares submerged across 16 districts.
• Assessment: ₹4,600 crore remained a preliminary estimate, with central teams only then due to assess the damage. These figures will have improved since and crews deserve credit for restoring most feeders and clearing roads quickly. But five days is too short for any State to rebuild completely. Recovery is planned as a sequence after one storm and that sequence has now been interrupted. Two caveats keep the argument honest. Last week's blow fell largely on the north of the State, while the State disaster authority expects Murasu to affect the central and southern coast. So this is not simply a second hit on the same land. In Andhra Pradesh, the compounding is mostly institutional: the same crews, stocks and budgets must now serve two storms, with Krishna district appearing in both lists. The physical compounding is clearest in Odisha. Four people died in landslides there during Arnab and Special Relief Commissioner Rajesh Prabhakar Patil warned that saturated ground could worsen matters. IMD expected only isolated heavy to very heavy rain in south Odisha. On soaked slopes, that may be enough.

Why the Mechanism Matters

A weakened system can also undermine the warning itself. Unrepaired mobile towers can leave gaps in the channel used to reach people and damaged lines can turn into an electrocution hazard during renewed winds and flooding.