El Niño Sets the Odds, Not the Outcome: What 1997, 2015 and 2026 Reveal About India's Monsoon
The 2026 monsoon has ended with a 12.6% shortfall during a strengthening El Niño, reviving an old question for forecasters: why does a strong Pacific warming sometimes bring a deficient monsoon and sometimes a near-normal one? The comparison with 1997 and 2015 and the wide gap between regions this year, make this an important Geography theme.