Back on the Map by Going Dark: Why Qatar's LNG Comeback Shows How Fragile India's Gas Supply Remains

The Supply Came Back; the Risk Did Not Go Away

Qatar's return as India's second-largest LNG supplier in October looks like a recovery. It is better understood as a warning. According to provisional Kpler data, Qatar supplied 0.44 million tonnes to India in the first 25 days of October, about 17.6 per cent of India's LNG imports. In January, it had supplied 1.05 million tonnes, about 40.9 per cent. In April and May, the figure was zero.

How the Gas Came Back

The recovery did not happen because the Strait of Hormuz became safe. It happened because Qatar found ways to take more risk.

• Going dark. Tankers reportedly switched off their tracking transponders to avoid detection while crossing the strait.
• Choosing safer windows. Sailings were timed to periods judged safe by maritime security assessments.
• Ship-to-ship transfers. Industry sources say Qatar has used shuttle tankers to carry cargo part of the way and transfer it to another ship waiting in safer waters. This is common for crude oil but rare for LNG, which must be kept at about minus 162 degrees Celsius and handled with cryogenic hoses. Each of these methods adds cost and risk. They are signs that the route is still under strain.

Who Pays While the Route Is Uncertain

Kavitha's question is who sits on the wrong side of the average. When Qatari supply vanished, India did not cut its gas use; its demand for gas is hard to reduce. Indian importers competed for spot cargoes at well above normal prices, even as some other large Asian buyers cut back.

In September, Oman briefly became India's top supplier; in October, the United States took that position back. The cost then moves through the economy:

• Fertiliser plants, which use gas to make urea, face higher input costs and because urea prices are controlled, much of that cost is likely to fall on the government's fertiliser subsidy.
• Gas-based power plants become more expensive to run during peak demand.
• City gas users, households on piped gas and vehicles on CNG, absorb price pressure where the market allows. The October data show that supply returned, but not that prices returned to normal.

Diversify the Route, Not Only the Supplier

Kpler analyst Sonal Ranjan said a sustained Qatari recovery could reduce India's need to buy replacement cargoes, since its underlying demand remains firm despite high prices. The problem is the word "sustained". India's long-term contract with QatarEnergy, renewed in February 2024 for 7.5 million tonnes a year from 2028 to 2048, secures volume at a good price but not a safe passage.

Roughly 45 to 50 per cent of India's LNG imports normally pass through Hormuz. Europe's experience after 2022 shows what it takes to recover from losing a key supply route: rapid deployment of floating storage and regasification units and a quick shift to LNG from new sources.

For India, resilience means three things together: strategic gas reserves, long-term contracts with suppliers whose cargoes do not transit Hormuz and more domestic production. India's target of raising gas to 15 per cent of its energy mix by 2030 only makes sense if the supply route is secure.

For the exam, the insight is that energy security depends on safe routes as well as reliable suppliers and that the cost of disruption ultimately falls on subsidy budgets and gas consumers.