Topic 18 of 20
Opinion Climate Transition and Carbon Lock-in Using building codes, transmission planning and green procurement thresholds to avoid carbon lock-in in India's coming infrastructure wave

Build It Right the First Time: Why India Must Lock In Efficiency Before It Locks In Carbon

Source The Hindu, NITI Aayog, Crack Academy, PIB, Ministry of Power, IIM Ranchi, Studocu, The Dollar Business, Scribd, Plutus IAS, MMCM, Senseible Earth, Down To Earth, Oren

86 per cent of the buildings India will be using in 2070 have not yet been built. That one number makes India's development deficit the largest climate decision it will take this century. Most of that decision will be made in municipal permit offices and procurement tenders, not at climate summits.

| | Topic 18 of 20

Summary

In an op-ed in The Hindu, Amarendu Nandy of IIM Ranchi and Aayush Anand argue that India's infrastructure deficit is a chance to avoid carbon lock-in. NITI Aayog estimates that 86 per cent of India's 2070 building stock is yet to be built and floor space will grow from about 18 billion to 42 billion square metres.

Steel capacity is targeted at 300 million tonnes by 2030-31 and cement output is projected to reach 660 million tonnes by 2030. Advanced economies, by contrast, already have most of their 2050 building stock and renovate only slowly.

The authors call for enforcing existing building codes, planning transmission alongside or ahead of generation and using emissions-intensity thresholds in public procurement of steel and cement instead of mandating unproven technologies.

TAN argues for this position and tests it against the strongest objection: the cost of the green premium and India's claim under common but differentiated responsibilities.

WHY IT MATTERS FOR UPSC & STATE PCS

The UN Environment Programme has warned that the world could cross the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold within a few years. At the same time, India is entering an investment cycle in buildings, power, steel and cement whose technology choices will fix its emissions for decades. That has made the policy instruments for avoiding lock-in an urgent question.

Standard News

India Should Lock In Efficiency Now, Before Its Infrastructure Locks In Carbon

TAN's position: India should build low-carbon standards into the infrastructure it is about to create. It should do this by enforcing building codes it already has, building transmission ahead of generation and setting green thresholds in public procurement, not by mandating technologies that are not yet ready.

Why now matters more than later NITI Aayog estimates that 86 per cent of the building stock India will have in 2070 does not yet exist.

Floor space will more than double, from about 18 billion to 42 billion square metres. Steel capacity is targeted to rise from about 200 to 300 million tonnes by 2030-31 and cement output from about 427 to 660 million tonnes by 2030.

Compare Europe. The IEA estimates that about 80 per cent of advanced economies' 2050 building stock already stands. In the EU, 85 per cent of buildings predate 2000, about three-quarters perform poorly on energy efficiency and only about 1 per cent are renovated each year.

Europe's climate problem is fixing what it already built. India's opportunity is not having built it yet.

Three instruments, chosen for a reason - **Buildings:

enforce the codes.** The ECBC 2017 has been notified in 27 States but legally adopted in only 21. The ECSBC 2024 and Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024 already exist. Making them conditions for building permits, occupancy certificates and grid connections costs little and makes non-compliance costly.

  • Power: build the wires first. The IEA estimates that about 60 GW of renewable capacity has been held back by transmission bottlenecks. That is clean power already paid for and going unused.
  • Steel and cement: set thresholds, not mandates. The Ministry of Steel itself says hydrogen-based green steel is not yet viable in India. So public buyers, including governments, Railways and NHAI, should set emissions-intensity thresholds in their tenders and let producers decide how to meet them.

The strongest objection The serious objection is cost.

A green premium on steel and cement makes housing, bridges and railways more expensive at exactly the stage of development when India most needs them to be cheap. Under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, India, with low per-capita and historical emissions, can fairly argue that growth and poverty reduction come first.

Why the

position still holds The objection is strongest against mandates and this position does not propose mandates. Procurement thresholds reveal the green premium through competitive bidding and tighten only as the premium falls.

The taxonomy already provides tiers, so tenders can start at the least demanding band. Building codes for mature technology lower lifetime energy bills instead of raising costs. And the cost of lock-in would not fall on rich countries.

It would fall on Indian households paying cooling bills for decades in buildings designed badly today.

CBDR is a principle about who should pay for global mitigation. It is not an argument for India to build inefficiency into assets it will live with until 2070. Where technology is mature, India has no excuse for building inefficiently. Where it is still developing, India should stay flexible. That distinction is the whole policy.

Quick Facts

Key numbers & takeaways — revise these first

  • NITI Aayog estimates that 86 per cent of India's 2070 building stock is yet to be built.

  • India's floor space is projected to rise from about 18 billion square metres in 2020 to 42 billion by 2070.

  • The IEA estimates that about 80 per cent of advanced economies' 2050 building stock already exists.

  • Only about 1 per cent of EU buildings are renovated each year.

  • The ECBC 2017 has been notified by 27 States but legally incorporated by only 21.

  • The BEE has issued the ECSBC 2024 for commercial buildings and the Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024 for homes.

  • The IEA estimates that transmission bottlenecks have held back about 60 GW of renewable capacity in India.

  • India's Green Steel Taxonomy, released on 12 December 2024, defines green steel as below 2.2 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of finished steel.

  • India's cost of capital for grid-scale renewables is about 80 per cent higher than in advanced economies, according to the IEA.

  • The Carbon Credit Trading Scheme sets mandatory emission-intensity targets for obligated sectors, including cement.

Beyond The Headlines
Opinion Using building codes, transmission planning and green procurement thresholds to avoid carbon lock-in in India's coming infrastructure wave

Connect the dots for your UPSC preparation.

Standard news covers the event. Log in to read our comprehensive analysis and uncover the hidden constitutional, structural, and ethical dimensions of this topic:

1

The green premium and CBDR objection built at full strength, including the Indian Steel Association's argument and the 80 per cent higher cost of capital

2

Why procurement thresholds, unlike technology mandates, are compatible with differentiated responsibilities, using the star bands of India's Green Steel Taxonomy

3

How the 60 GW of stranded renewable capacity changes the economics of transmission planning

4

Where TAN concedes ground: the specific sectors in which the objection still wins and how the position allows for them

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Carbon lock-in Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024 ECSBC 2024 ECBC 2017 Green Steel Taxonomy Carbon Credit Trading Scheme Green public procurement Transmission planning CBDR Green premium Bureau of Energy Efficiency NITI Aayog Net zero 2070 Climate transition GS3 Environment

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