Exporting a Harvest Not Yet Sown: Why India's Wheat Policy Needs Export Windows, Not On-Off Switches

A Full Granary Is Not the

Same as an Export Surplus The headline number is reassuring. Central Pool wheat stood at nearly 48 MMT on September 1, more than twice the 20.5 MMT buffer norm for October

1. Procurement rose to 35.76 MMT. On that basis, the government moved wheat exports from "prohibited" to "free" on August 24. But that stock comes from a crop already harvested. What matters for exports is the crop being sown now and that is where the risks lie.

Who Gains From Opening and Why the Pressure Is Real

The case for exporting is concrete. When the ban was lifted, domestic wheat prices were reported to be depressed, which hurts farmers selling outside government procurement. Abroad, Indian wheat priced at about ₹27/kg in Madhya Pradesh lands at roughly $330 a tonne, while Black Sea wheat reaches Chittagong at about $380.

That gap of about $50 a tonne gives Indian traders a real advantage in nearby markets. Futures for May 2027 are also about 15% higher than a year earlier. So opening exports does help specific people: farmers in surplus states who sell to private traders and exporters who can take advantage of the price gap.

Why Stocks Cannot Replace the Next Harvest

The risk works through timing. The buffer protects the ration shop and the consumer until the next harvest. Whether India can afford to export depends on how big that next harvest will be and the wheat now being sown faces risks that differ by state:

• Punjab and Haryana have large rainfall shortfalls but can draw on groundwater, at a cost to aquifers and to state power subsidies.
• Rajasthan has rainfall about 25% below normal and reservoir storage about 31% below.
• Bihar has about 35% less rain, which threatens soil moisture at sowing time. On top of this, El Niño is expected to last through January-March 2027, with higher odds of above-normal temperatures. A warm March shrinks yields at the grain-filling stage. That is exactly what happened in 2022.

India Has Seen This Before In

2022, India projected a record 111.3 MMT, targeted 10 MMT of exports and was still sending trade delegations abroad on May 12. On May 13, it banned exports. Six days later, the production estimate was cut to 106.4 MMT.

In 2026, sugar followed a similar path: more exports were allowed in February and by August the government was permitting duty-free raw sugar imports. Each reversal has a cost that is easy to miss. Buyers, such as mills in Bangladesh, learn that Indian supply can vanish overnight and they pay more or go elsewhere next time.

The Alternative: Export Windows

The choice is not between banning exports and opening them fully. India already used the better option this year: 2.5 MMT windows in February and April. Windows of that kind, reviewed at key points in the crop cycle (sowing progress in December, temperatures in February and crop condition in March), let India export more if the crop is good.

They also avoid a sudden ban if it is not. Grain shipped in October cannot be brought back in April.

For the exam: in agricultural trade policy, the question is not just whether to export, but when to decide. Under climate uncertainty, keeping the option to adjust is worth more than a single all-or-nothing decision.